Political Parallels: Brazil and the U.S.

 

Few expected former President Donald Trump, who left office on January 20, 2021, to be able to engineer one of the most dominant presidential primary performances in US political history just three years later.

 

With a rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden in 2024 almost certain, Trump's interviews, speeches, and social media posts since leaving office provide insight into what his foreign and domestic policy priorities might be if he wins a historic non-consecutive second term in the White House in November.
The following are some of Trump's remarks over the last two years on critical policy topics, both foreign and domestic, that are important to voters and analysts in the 2024 election and will most likely shape his tenure in office. While current, former, and potentially future Trump advisors have weighed in on subjects ranging from AUKUS to federal employee hiring procedures, this compilation provides insight into where the previous president stands on these issues. It will be updated throughout the 2024 election cycle.
Bolsonaro recently visited Orlando, where he has fans among the state's expanding community of Brazilian Americans. Florida is home to a considerable number of Latin American expats, many of whom embrace center-right politics and have gravitated toward the Republican Party, which has nurtured this increasing electoral bloc.
Florida is a favorable atmosphere, especially for the former president, according to Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of the Americas and the Americas Society. "It's a very common location where Latin Americans are generally welcomed and feel comfortable."
Bolsonaro tweeted late Monday that he had been admitted to a hospital in Kissimmee, Florida, and shared a photo from his bed. In an interview with CNN Brasil, Bolsonaro stated that he was "well" and expected to be released in the coming days after being hospitalized for "abdominal pain." He also mentioned that he might return to Brazil sooner than expected.
Prior to his hospitalization, his supporters had gathered outside the home of retired Brazilian MMA fighter Jose Aldo, where Bolsonaro was supposed to be staying, to show their support.
Orlando realtor Ricardo Molina shared a video on YouTube showing what appeared to be the former president going out of the house to welcome supporters before Lula's inauguration. Molina did not return a request for comment.
Longstanding relationships with Trump, allies
Many are drawing comparisons between the irate mob of Bolsonaro supporters that stormed the presidential palace, Congress, and the Supreme Court and the 2021 riot at the United States Capitol. Many are focusing on Bolsonaro and his family's historical relationship with former President Donald Trump, as well as his former senior strategist, Steve Bannon.
Following Bolsonaro's defeat, unsubstantiated charges of election fraud, similar to those in the United States, began to emerge in Brazil.

Jair Bolsonaro visits Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 28, 2022.

Four American college lecturers were hurt in a stabbing attack in China.
Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president's son and a politician, has met with Trump and Bannon several times since his father entered office in 2019.
Trump's associates exported many of the previous president's campaign methods to Brazil ahead of the presidential elections.
Guests at a Conservative Political Action Coalition convention in Brazil in 2021 included Donald Trump Jr. and Tennessee Republican Rep. Mark Green, who voted against recognizing the 2020 election results. Speakers insulted the press and portrayed opponents as criminals and communists. 
Eduardo Bolsonaro gave a presentation on election fraud in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, in August 2021, at an event hosted by Mike Lindell, the pillow executive and one of the leading voices on Trump’s false claims that the 2020 presidential election was rigged.
Eduardo Bolsonaro was cheered by Lindell and Bannon as he talked about election fraud, conspiracy theories and the "fake news" media.
Following Bolsonaro's defeat in October, tens of thousands of supporters began camping outside military bases across Brazil in protest.
In the meantime, Eduardo Bolsonaro, visited Trump in Mar-a-Lago. He and other members of Bolsonaro's inner circle have consulted with Trump allies to strategize a way forward, using the energy of his father’s supporters.
Trump has not responded to the attack on the Brazilian capital.
There were other similarities to the events leading to Jan. 6.
Laura Pereira, a Brazilian researcher focused on social media and the Internet, said protesters primarily used WhatsApp, Telegram and YouTube to organize and fund the uprising.
"Digital media was used to organize and execute the actions, not only to share disinformation," Pereira stated. "It's like an ecosystem of information regarding the need to act on Brasília, to [steal] the power, to defend Bolsonaro's agenda and to rebel against democracy."
"Disinformation was a growing part of our election," she stated, describing it as a "challenge regarding democracy and the Internet in general."

Jan. 6 parallels, but an important distinction

There is one fundamental difference between Brazil’s riot and Jan. 6, according to Bruna Santos, a senior adviser at the Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center, a Washington think tank.
"The primary one is the timing; the Capitol attack had the definite goal of obstructing Joe Biden’s swearing-in to impede his victory from becoming a foregone conclusion," said Santos. In Brazil, by contrast, all time limits (declaration of results, swearing-in, inauguration) had passed before the rioting took place.
"It implies that the possibility of a coup succeeding at this moment is far more remote," Santos said, "as the quick reaction from the global community demonstrates."
For Farnsworth, the riot's timing showed it wasn't about getting Bolsonaro back to Brazil. "I don’t think Bolsonaro has any interest in doing that. That’s why he left to Florida,” he said.
“They’re more interested in simply not allowing Lula to take power. ... And if that’s the case, then we have real trouble," said Farnsworth about the implications for the new president.
Approximately 1,500 protesters have been detained since Sunday, and it's considered the worst attack on the country’s democracy in almost 40 years.
Those who predicted the violence say police should have done more to prevent it. Brazil's Supreme Court ruled Sunday that Ibaneis Rocha, governor of the Federal District, home to the capital, be suspended following the violence.
“Everybody knew this was a possibility. Why didn’t the police department from the [Federal District] do anything to stop it?” Azevedo said. “There is open chat on social media of them getting together to do that.”